Success in investments could be a complex mix of rational analysis, risk-management and a whole lot of unknown fortuitous variables that are too complicated to calculate. This means that it helps to be largely conservative in one’s management of investments to survive in trading. As Warren Buffet said, take all the risks you want but make sure you don’t forget that tomorrow, you still have to show up for work. Fortunately for Chief Investment Officer Sahm Adrangi of Kerrisdale Capital Management, LLC, he understands the value of being conservative and the importance of giving negative reports.

In the last negative report given by Sahm Adrangi for St. Joe Company, he argued that there’s too much misleading information about the firm. He believes that St. Joe Company’s calculation of the value of their real estate ventures could be far out or off the mark. He also believed that St. Joe’s real market value could even be lower because of the situation that its main investor, Fairholme Fund, is experiencing. The shareholder is still under investigation or processing because of the new SEC liquidity rules that will make or break the real value of the firm. This new regulation could even force St. Joe Company to force-sell its assets.

Secondly, it is seen through the analysis of Kerrisdale that no big improvement can be observed on St. Joe’s plans for their real estate project. The channel checks from Kerrisdale even saw no significant activity regarding building department inquiries over their product offerings. This leads Sahm Adrangi to argue that it’s too much of a stretch to believe in the current $1 billion assessment of the market value of the entire St. Joe Company’s projects. Such valuation could not match the current progress of the firm.
What makes Kerrisdale Capital’s assessment of St. Joe Company significantly reliable is the fact that Mr. Sahm Adrangi is the Founder itself of Kerrisdale Capital, so he holds accountable for whatever advice he gives out to his clients. He is also an experienced investment analyst, especially from his equity fund experience at Longacre Fund Management.

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